Number One Overall — Baseball Bench Coach

This past week featured the debut of the Pirates rookie phenom pitcher, Paul Skenes. At the age of 21 Skenes skyrocketed through the Pittsburgh minor league system in less than a year. He posted a 0.99 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Indianapolis this spring before getting a call to the big leagues. In his first game as a Pirate, Skenes delivered for a near capacity PNC Park crowd. His fastball velocity averaged 100.1 mph as he struck out 7 Cubs batters. This past Friday at Wrigley Field he dominated – 6 innings, 0 runs, 0 hits, 11 Ks. Yes, it’s way too early to know, but this first overall draft pick looks to be a huge star. Let’s take a look at MLB’s history of #1 selections and see if they were booms, busts, or maybe somewhere in between.

MLB’s first-year player draft, also called the Rule 4 Draft, began in 1965. It was developed so that wealthier teams could not steal away all of the top level prospects from the small market clubs. Unlike other professional sports, MLB does not allow teams to trade draft picks. In addition, in response to the possibility of teams tanking to grab a player like Skenes, the first six selections of the first round are now determined by lottery. The prior season’s standings determine the order of the other selections.

There have been some huge booms as #1 overalls. Ken Griffey, Jr. heads the list. Drafted first by Seattle out of Cincinnati Moeller High in 1988, Jr. played 22 MLB seasons that featured 630 home runs and 10 Gold Gloves. In 1994, Seattle had the good fortune of landing in the one slot again and selected Alex Rodriguez. In ARod’s 22 seasons, he hit over 600 HRs (696), over 2,000 RBIs and runs scored, and more than 3,000 hits and 300 stolen bases, the only MLB player in history to do so. Rounding out the best of the best number one overalls is Chipper Jones, the 1993 top pick of the Braves. Chipper is the only switch hitter ever to have garnered a .300 batting average (.305 career) and 400 or more HRs (468).

At the next boom rung are two Hall of Famers and two current stars. Harold Baines played 22 seasons in MLB, known mostly for his days with the White Sox. Baines batted over .300 eight times and finished his career with 2,866 hits and a .289 batting average. Joe Mauer, who will enter the Hall of Fame this July, spent his entire 15 years with the Twins. He quietly was one of the great hitters of his time and the only catcher in MLB history with three batting titles. While I want to place Bryce Harper (2012 NL Rookie of the Year and 2015 NL MVP) and Gerrit Cole (2023 AL Cy Young winner) with the first group, let’s see how their respective careers play out before doing so.

There have also been some busts. Pitcher David Clyde, drafted first overall by the Rangers in 1973, played in just six seasons and posted an 18-33 career record. He didn’t play in the minor leagues and was put in the Texas rotation much too early to boost attendance. Clyde never recovered from a rough start to his career. Floyd Bannister, another lefty in the same era, came into the league with the same lofty expectations, only to fail for the most part. While he made one All-Star appearance, he had a losing career record of 134-143. And then there’s Josh Hamilton. Chosen first by Tampa in 1999, his career was quite a roller coaster. He rose to the top in 2010 as the AL MVP, but could never put it all together personally. In my mind he was a bust since he fell far short of his abilities.

My list of players falling somewhere in between has a common thread – each may be said to have had a solid career but not stardom. Rick Monday was the first player ever selected in an MLB draft as #1 by the Kansas City Athletics in 1965. Monday posted a career batting average of .264 over eighteen seasons. He is probably most remembered for saving the American flag from burning in an incident at Dodger Stadium in 1976. I also put Jeff Burroughs and Bob Horner In this category. Both were lauded as franchise saviors when drafted. Burroughs was the 1974 AL MVP, and Horner was named the 1978 NL Rookie of the Year. Yet, as sluggers each posted less than 250 career HRs. Maybe the most talented of this bunch is Shawon Dunston, the number one pick in 1982. His offensive stats (.269 career average) and defensive prowess (not many shortstops had an arm like Dunston) were in a word, solid.

There are two players who were thought of as superstars but I really struggled where to categorize them. Daryll Strawberry, the first overall selection by the Mets in 1980, was a top player early in his career. The Straw Man made eight straight NL All-Star teams from 1984 to 1991. While he was a feared slugger in his prime, his numbers really tailed off late in a career that ended with the Yankees in 1999. Stephen Strasburg, the first overall pick by the Nationals in 2009, was deemed the “most hyped pick in draft history” by ESPN. In Strasburg’s first MLB start he recorded 14 strikeouts. He also was named the 2019 World Series MVP. Yet, arm problems plagued his career and he won just 113 games in his 13-year career.

The jury is still out on whether two current shortstops drafted number one overall are booms. Carlos Correa made a huge, early splash with the Astros in being named the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year. After seven seasons with Houston, Carlos is now a Twin. Correa currently has a .273 overall batting average. On the National League side, Arizona struck gold in the 2015 draft landing Dansby Swanson out of Vanderbilt. Dansby was traded to the Braves and debuted for Atlanta in the 2016 season. He was a big part of the 2021 world championship club. Swanson is now starring for the Cubs.

Another shortstop, Jackson Holliday in the Orioles organization, has the number one overall spotlight on him this year, much like Paul Skenes. Due to injury, Holliday got an early call this spring, on April 10, to show the Baltimore fans that he’s going to be the real deal. Unfortunately, in his first 34 at-bats he struck out 18 times and got just 2 hits. He has since returned to AAA where he is again tearing it up. Here's hoping that Skenes and Holliday will rise to the top in their MLB careers.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach