Flash in the Pan? — Baseball Bench Coach

Last week’s blog post, “Can’t Miss”, received some comments on whether the new Reds outfielder, Rece Hinds, might also be a sure thing. He exploded onto the MLB scene before the All-Star break, being named the NL Player of the Week after just his first seven games in the big leagues. The numbers are incredible -- .423 batting average, 5 home runs, and a total of 9 extra base hits. His call up to the Reds though came at an unusual time. He was batting just .216 at AAA-Louisville with 126 strikeouts (second worst in minor league baseball). The jury is clearly out on his future stardom. Baseball has a history of sizzling starts by players whose careers just didn’t match their potential.

Cincinnati has a couple such players in their fans’ short and long term memories. The hope for sure is that Hinds is not another Aristides Aquino. In August 2019, Aquino hit seven home runs in his first 10 MLB games, tying the record of Trevor Story. That month In a game against the Cubs, Aristides hit 3 home runs and became the first rookie in MLB history to hit an HR in three consecutive innings. His record-breaking first two weeks included 10 HRs in his first 16 games, and he completed the month by tying an all-time Reds record with 14! His shooting star quickly fell in 2020 as he hit just .170. Aquino was DFA’d in April 2022. He now plays for the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball.

In 1970 the Reds were the talk of the baseball world, starting the season with a 70-30 record. It was the Big Red Machine coming of age. But another big reason for the early 1970 success was 21-year-old rookie righthander Wayne Simpson. Simpson won 13 of his first 14 starts, a streak that included a one-hitter, two-hitter, and three-hitter. His blazing start earned him a spot as the only rookie pitcher on the NL All-Star team. The second half of that season quickly soured, as Wayne tore his rotator cuff on July 31. He is the poster boy for today’s pitch count limit, as Simpson’s first half pitch count ranged from 100 to 130 per game. His five season MLB career ended in 1975 when he posted a 36-31 career win-loss record.

There are more famous pitchers whose early days were flaming. How about the “Bird”, Mark Fidrych, who Detroit fans and all of baseball fell in love with in 1976? The Tigers star righthander led MLB with a 2.34 ERA and a 19-9 record, and received the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Everyone marveled at his mound antics, including talking to the baseball before pitches and carefully manicuring the dirt around the rubber. Fidrych started the All-Star Game in 1976 as a rookie, much like Paul Skenes last week. My guess is that there is where the comparison ends, since Fidrych went on to win just 10 more games after the 1976 season.

“Fernandomania” hit the baseball world in 1981. The Dodgers rookie lefthander, Fernando Valenzuela, won his first eight starts, and get this, five of them were shutouts. In a strike-shortened season, he finished 1981 with a 13-7 record and ERA of 2.48. That year Valenzuela became the only player in baseball history to win the Cy Young and ROY awards in the same season. Fernando was known for his unusual windup and a knee-breaking screwball. He was also a pretty good hitter, slugging 10 HRs in his career. Valenzuela’s star seemed to fade after his rookie breakout year. Although he had a successful career over 17 seasons, he certainly never matched his 1981 season.

The story of Dwight Gooden is similar. “Doc” came roaring into the league in 1984, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award and leading the NL in strikeouts. He was at the very top of the baseball world in 1985 – NL Cy Young winner, a 24-4 record, 1.53 ERA, 268 strikeouts, and sixteen complete games. In the next season, 1986, Gooden led the Mets to the World Series championship. After Gooden left the Mets following the 1994 season, he pitched for four other teams. His career record was 194-112, excellent overall, but he was never the same dominant pitcher as in his early years. Struggling with drug and alcohol addictions, Gooden left the game in 2000.

In more recent times, Cubs fans saw the quick rise and fall of catcher Geovany Soto. In 2007, Soto starred for the AAA Iowa Cubs, posting a .353 batting average with 26 HRs and 109 RBIs. After his September 2007 call up to the Cubs, the hits kept falling as he hit .389 and started for Chicago in their playoff round against Arizona. The next season was all Soto, catching a no-hit game thrown by Carlos Zambrano, starting the All-Star Game as the NL catcher, and winning the National League Rookie of the Year award. His 2008 numbers were exceptional -- .285 batting average, 23 HRs, and 86 RBIs. In 2009, Soto’s average plummeted to .218, and in 2011 he had the lowest fielding percentage among NL catchers. His career ended in 2017 after playing on four other MLB teams.

A couple other early risers are still in the game today, so their flame has yet to go out. When Michael Wacha debuted in May 2013 for the Cardinals, I thought for sure he was the next Adam Wainwright. Following a stellar 2013 season, Wacha was the mainstay of the Cardinals’ playoff pitchers, giving up only one run in 21 postseason innings. His career seemed to average out, as most recently he has pitched for 5 MLB teams in five consecutive seasons.

Trevor Story, who started with a bang for Colorado in 2016, is the last tale to tell. As a rookie in April 2016, he hit a home run in each of his first four games and was named the NL Rookie of the Month. He quickly earned the reputation of a solid bat, exceptional fielder, and speedster on the basepaths. In 2020 he led the National League in stolen bases. In typical Rockies’ fashion, Trevor was traded to Boston prior to the 2022 season since he was too expensive for Colorado’s tastes.

The story for Reds’ rookie Rece Hinds will play out over the next few months, and hopefully seasons to come. Let’s hope that he’s not just a flash in the pan.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach