Hold Onto Hope — Baseball Bench Coach

In my first week of freshman year in college I met a dormmate who was the ultimate Cubbies fan. The Cubs were seven games out in the division race with nine games to play, and he followed every inning of play with the mindset “it ain’t over”. If we would have had FanGraphs back then, I’m sure the possibility of Chicago playoff baseball would have been less than 1%. But my new buddy still had hope. Fast forward 45+ years and I find myself talking daily with Cubs believers with a lot more reason for playoff optimism. MLB’s “Wild Card” format allows 12 of the 15 current NL teams to still hold onto hope. Let’s take a look at how securing a Wild Card spot is the new focus of pennant races.

When MLB went to three divisions in each league in 1994, it introduced Wild Card teams into the playoff mix. One Wild Card team for each league was added. Beginning in 1998, the team with the best record in the league would face the Wild Card entrant unless both teams were from the same division. In 2012 a second Wild Card team for each league was added such that the two Wild Card teams would face off in a single elimination game before entering the Division Series. In 2022 MLB modified the structure again, adding a third Wild Card team in each league. Today’s format is that the two teams with the best winning records in each league get a first round bye, while the third division winner (seed #3) plays the third Wild Card team (seed #6) and the first and second Wild Card entrants (seed #s 4 and 5) square off. Both series are best of three with all games at the home ballpark of the better seed.

The last two Octobers have shown how the Wild Card is the best play in your hand. Philadelphia began the 2022 season with a dismal 21-29 record. After changing managers, the Phils went 66-46 to reach the playoffs as the sixth NL seed. Philly dominated the NL playoffs, defeating the Padres in the NLCS 4 games to 1. It marked the first time in League Championship Series play that two Wild Card teams met. The Astros burst the Philadelphia bubble though in the 2022 World Series, taking it in five games.

Last Fall it was October Wild Card madness times two! The only division winner to advance to either League Championship Series were the Astros with a record of just 90-72. It marked the first time in MLB postseason history that the last four remaining teams had 90 or fewer wins. The NL’s Diamondbacks were one of those. Securing the last Wild Card spot (# 6 in NL) on September 30th, Arizona went on a tear in the playoffs and advanced to its first World Series in 22 years. The D’Backs fell short in the Series to the AL champion Rangers, who themselves were the AL’s Wild Card # 5 seed. Texas had spent most of the season in first place in the AL West, but dropped the division title and three seeds in the rankings to Houston on the last weekend of the season. The Rangers’ postseason numbers were remarkable, going just 2-4 at home and 11-0 on the road, the most postseason wins on the road in history. Take that home park advantage!

Until last season, we had witnessed only two World Series where both participating teams started their playoff runs as a Wild Card. In 2002, the Angels and the Giants, two teams that finished second in their respective league divisions (AL West and NL West) met in the World Series for the battle of California. The “Anaheim” Angels won the Series in seven games, the first and only world title for the Angels. Twelve years later, the Wild Card Giants were at it again as they met the Royals in the 2014 World Series. The Giants captured their third world championship in five seasons.

This year only three NL teams (the Marlins, Rockies, and Nationals) are seemingly out of the Wild Card chase. Historically, the Marlins and the Wild Card are synonomous. Miami has never won a division title in its 30-year history. All four of their postseason appearances have been through a Wild Card appearance. They did though make the most of two of them, winning the World Series in 1997 and 2003. It’s most definitely a make or break franchise. The Marlins have the lowest, overall winning percentage of any MLB team in existence. This year is no different as they enter week’s play at 44-75. And of course their 1993 expansion counterparts Rockies, with another disappointing season and an identical record of 44-75, are the only other MLB franchise to have never won its division.

The 2019 Washington Nationals also experienced playoff success without a division title in its fold. Entering the playoffs as a Wild Card, the Nationals went on a tear led by the starting staff of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. They defeated the Brewers in the Wild Card game, knocked off the 106-game winning Dodgers in the NLDS, swept the Cardinals in the NLCS, and won the World Series in seven games over the Astros. The 2024 version of the Nationals are in 4th place in the NL East with a record of 54-65, truly a Wild Card long shot.

So which teams do still have hope in the National League this year? While the Phillies, Dodgers, and Brewers each have leads in their respective divisions and will most probably be seeds 1, 2, and 3 come playoff time, nine other teams will be scrambling for Wild Card seeds 4, 5, and 6 over the next 40+ games. Currently, San Diego, Arizona, and Atlanta are leading the Wild Card pack and just 5 games separate the Braves from the last contender, Pittsburgh. With a record of 59-60 at week’s end and just 3 games back in the Wild Card hunt, my college buddy’s Cubs of 2024 are still very much in the race.

Hold onto hope.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach